Behind the Curtain: Trump's escalation trap - Axios

A recent analysis argues that President Trump's high-variance, improvisational approach has created an 'escalation trap' in the Iran conflict: by publicly pressing allies to secure shipping lanes and by taking visible steps to shore up oil supplies, he increases the incentive for a stronger adversary to keep attacking to signal dominance. Those moves — including calls for a multinational naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz, threats against Iran's oil infrastructure, and domestic actions to boost oil output or tap reserves — complicate diplomacy, risk unintended military escalation, and make it harder for the administration to pivot if pressure backfires. The piece warns that market-focused fixes (like reserve releases or pushing offshore production) may blunt price shocks short term but do little to reduce reciprocal attacks that can prolong the crisis.