Reopening the Strait will require credible demining, independent verification and multilateral security arrangements, even after any announcements that the waterway is open. A Pentagon briefing that full clearance could take up to six months and is unlikely until the war with Iran ends reinforces the assessment that normal tanker traffic probably won’t resume in full until the conflict is resolved and verification measures are in place. Recent reports that ships are only now positioning under a U.S.-Iran agreement illustrate early movement but do not remove the need for on-the-ground clearance and multilateral verification.
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