The White House has warned staff not to place bets on online prediction markets as the U.S.-Iran conflict continues. The guidance followed reporting that anonymous traders made sizable, well-timed wagers predicting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire shortly before a presidential address and related announcements. The Department of Justice charging a service member for using classified information to inform prediction-market bets underscores the legal and ethical risks cited by officials and reinforces the rationale for the warning.
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