Anonymous traders placed substantial, well-timed bets on Polymarket predicting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire hours before a presidential address and reports about a U.S. plan to end the conflict. Lawmakers are calling for investigations into whether those trades reflected inside information or coordinated activity that could have influenced markets and public perceptions. The recent DOJ charge against a U.S. soldier accused of using classified information to profit from prediction-market bets strengthens concerns that government insiders may have been involved and could prompt criminal as well as congressional probes.
Click a connection line between nodes to view confidence and evidence.