
Futures have diverged from the physical market, creating a gap between paper prices and the supplies that determine consumer costs. Traders’ uncertainty about the conflict’s duration is widening that disconnect and producing sharp intraday moves that may not reflect immediate physical shortages. China’s March figures — a pronounced export slowdown and an import surge driven in part by energy buying and rerouted shipments — illustrate how physical supply disruptions are shaping real-world price dynamics.
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