How long will the war last? No one knows, and it's making oil prices weird - NPR

Traders are pricing the Iran war as if two very different outcomes could both be true, creating extreme volatility—oil has swung as much as $35 intraday while trading around $110 per barrel. That uncertainty about how long the conflict will last, and whether disruptions remain logistical or become permanent supply destruction, is widening the gap between futures and the physical market and producing rapid spikes and reversals tied to policy signals and shipping disruptions.