What on earth is going on with the oil price? - BBC

Sharp swings since the Iran conflict began have been driven by attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure and by effective closures of the Strait of Hormuz. The market's 'Schrödinger's cat' behavior—pricing both calm and catastrophe at once—helps explain extreme intraday moves such as the recent brief surge to about $120 per barrel after reports of an extended blockade. That dynamic explains why futures can move faster than physical-market signals.